How to Tell a Real Black Friday Deal From a Fake One
Every November the same product can be "40% off" at three stores and cost the same at all three. The percentage on a sale tag is a comparison, and the seller chooses what it compares against. So the most useful thing to know before Black Friday is not where the biggest discounts are. It is how to check, in about a minute, whether a discount is real.
Here are the six checks we use, in the order that saves the most time, and how Fazy runs them for every product it lists.
The percentage is the least reliable number on the page
A discount is calculated from a reference price: "was", "list", "compare at", "regular" or the manufacturer's suggested price. The retailer picks that number. The Federal Trade Commission's guides on deceptive pricing say a former price should be one the product was actually offered at, openly and in good faith, for a reasonably substantial period of time. That is a standard, not a guarantee.
We measured how often it holds. On September 30, 2026, among products in our catalogue that showed a "was" price and that we had tracked for at least 30 days, 83% had never sold at that "was" price while we were watching them. The full numbers, by category, are in Most "was" prices were never the price.
So start by ignoring the percentage. Look at the price itself, then ask the questions below.
1. What did it cost a month ago?
The comparison that matters is with the price you could have paid recently. If a stand mixer "on sale" for $299 sold for $299 for most of October, Black Friday has not made it cheaper. It has made the banner louder.
To answer this you need a price history: a record of what the product cost, with dates. Price trackers exist for the largest marketplaces. For the stores Fazy covers, we keep our own record for every product we list: the lowest price we have recorded and the price it had before its latest change, each with its date.
2. Is it the lowest price, or just lower?
"Down $40" and "the lowest price we have recorded" are different claims. A product can fall from a briefly inflated price back to its usual one and still show a real-looking drop. The lowest-recorded test is stricter: nothing we have seen was cheaper.
How long the record runs matters too. The lowest price in five months says more than the lowest price in five days. That is why every low on Fazy names the date its record starts: "The lowest price Fazy has recorded since 23 Jun 2026" is a claim you can weigh.
3. Watch for a price that rose before it fell
Some sellers raise a price in the weeks before a sale, so the sale price can be advertised against the higher one. In a price history this looks like a spike followed by a "drop" back to roughly where the product started. If the Black Friday price equals the price from six weeks ago, there was no sale, only a round trip.
You do not need special tools to catch this. You need the price from before the rise, which is exactly what a dated record gives you.
4. Spot the permanent sale
A struck-through price that never moves is a design element, not a discount. In our records, 43% of the products showing a "was" price had the same sale price at every check over the time we watched them, which averaged about eight weeks. On Black Friday those products usually get a new banner and the same price.
The tell is simple: if the "sale" price is the only price anyone has seen, it is the price.
5. Compare the exact product, not the listing
Many stores price colors, sizes and bundles separately, and the advertised price may apply to one of them. A coat at $89 in one color can be $129 in the one you want. Before you compare two stores, or compare today with last month, make sure you are looking at the same variant.
Doorbuster prices often apply to a limited quantity, and some apply only to a model made for the sale, with a slightly different part number. If the part number differs, so may the product.
6. Price the total, not the tag
The number that leaves your account includes shipping, tax and any fees. A lower price with paid shipping can cost more than a higher one with free shipping, and a free-shipping threshold can push you to add something you did not plan to buy.
Then read two policies before you buy early. The return window: many retailers extend it for holiday purchases, and a return is the simplest price protection there is. And price adjustments: some stores refund the difference if the price drops within a set period after you buy. Both vary by store, so check the one you are buying from.
The one-minute version
Ignore the percentage. It compares against a number the seller chose.
Find last month's price. If the sale price matches it, there is no sale.
Ask whether it is the lowest, or just lower. And for how long the record runs.
Check the exact variant. Color, size and bundle can each change the price.
Add shipping and read the return window. Then decide.
If it is not urgent and not at its low, wait. Many Black Friday prices last through Cyber Monday, and some come back in December.
How Fazy runs these checks for you
Fazy reads the price of every product it lists and keeps each change it sees, with the date. On our Black Friday page, no retailer "was" price is used at all: a product appears there only when the price we read within the last day is the lowest we have recorded for it and lower than the price it had before, and each one shows both facts, dated.
When a price has not been read in the last day, we claim nothing about it. When the record is too young to say anything, we say that instead. The same record is available to AI assistants through our API and MCP server, so an assistant can answer "is this a good price?" with the same dated facts you see here.
The rules behind every price on Fazy are in our editorial standards. The short version: we compare against prices we saw, and we tell you when we saw them.